The United States and Ukraine have agreed on the terms of a draft minerals deal, a move seen as central to Kyiv’s efforts to maintain Washington’s support as US President Donald Trump seeks to expedite an end to the ongoing war with Russia.

While the draft agreement does not include US security guarantees or assurances of continued weapons supply, it does affirm Washington’s stance that Ukraine should be “free, sovereign and secure,” according to a source familiar with its contents.

The deal is expected to open access to Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves for the US, as Trump has framed the agreement as a way for American taxpayers to be repaid for the billions of dollars in aid sent to Kyiv.

Trump also said some form of peacekeeping force would be necessary in Ukraine if a deal to end the conflict were reached, a suggestion Moscow has rejected outright. Some European nations, however, have signaled willingness to contribute peacekeeping troops.

High-stakes agreement

Trump, who last week exchanged sharp words with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on Tuesday that the Ukrainian leader is expected in Washington on Friday to sign a “very big deal.”

Officials on both sides have reportedly approved the draft, which proposes the creation of a Reconstruction Investment Fund that will collect and reinvest revenues from Ukrainian natural resources, including minerals and hydrocarbons.

Ukraine is set to contribute 50% of revenue from extractable resources, minus operational costs, to the fund until the contributions reach $500 billion. In return, Washington has pledged a long-term financial commitment to Ukraine’s economic stability.

A previous draft had been rejected by Kyiv, as the US initially demanded rights to $500 billion worth of Ukraine’s natural wealth, an amount that vastly exceeded the total aid Ukraine has received from Washington.

Trump has justified the deal by citing past American support. "The American taxpayer is going to get their money back, plus,” he said, claiming the US has provided Ukraine between $300 billion and $350 billion in military and financial assistance.

Strategic minerals at stake

Ukraine possesses significant reserves of minerals deemed critical to global industries. According to Ukrainian data, the country holds deposits of 22 out of the 34 minerals identified as essential by the European Union. These include:

• Graphite: Ukraine holds 19 million tonnes of proven reserves, a crucial component for electric vehicle batteries and nuclear reactors.
• Lithium: A third of all European lithium reserves, a key element in battery production, are found in Ukraine.
• Titanium: Before the full-scale war began three years ago, Ukraine produced 7% of the world’s titanium, used in construction and aerospace.
• Rare Earth Elements: Ukraine contains substantial deposits of these 17 elements, essential for weapons, electronics, and wind turbines.

However, a significant portion of Ukraine’s mineral wealth—estimated at $350 billion—is currently in territories occupied by Russia, according to Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

European concerns and geopolitical shifts

The deal has caused unease among European allies, who fear being sidelined as Washington moves towards direct negotiations with Moscow. Trump's administration has reportedly shifted focus away from Europe’s security, raising concerns in Kyiv and across the continent.

The US president has also suggested that any future military assistance to Ukraine will be contingent on a broader peace deal with Russia. "Maybe until we have a deal with Russia... We need to have a deal, otherwise it's going to continue," he said.

Trump’s approach signals a significant departure from traditional US foreign policy, which for over 75 years, including during the Marshall Plan and post-Cold War era, has supported allies without direct economic conditions.

With the precedent now set, analysts suggest that similar “aid-for-resources” conditions could define Trump’s foreign policy agenda in the coming years.

Russia’s counteroffer

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to offering the US access to rare minerals, including those in Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine. This development has further stoked concerns in Kyiv that major geopolitical decisions regarding Ukraine’s future could be made without its direct involvement.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, who has led the negotiations, acknowledged that while the minerals deal is significant, it is “only part of the picture.” She noted that many details still require further discussion, particularly concerning Ukraine’s long-term security.