As the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 heads into its final week, the stakes are higher than ever. Eight teams progressed to the Super Eight stage, and now only four will advance to the semifinals.
The last round of Super Eight matches, scheduled for June 23 and 24, will be decisive in determining which teams will make the cut. Let's break down the scenarios for each group and explore how each team can qualify for the semifinals.
Super Eights’ Group 1
Remaining fixtures
- India vs Australia (June 24, 14:30 GMT)
- Afghanistan vs Bangladesh (June 25, 00:30 GMT)
India: Favourites to qualify
India, having won both of their Super Eight matches, are in a strong position to secure a semifinal spot. A victory against Australia will confirm their place in the semifinals, maintaining their unbeaten streak in the tournament. Even if India loses to Australia, their impressive net run rate (NRR) of 2.425 will likely be sufficient to see them through.
Australia: Likely to qualify
Australia faces a near-sudden death scenario against India. A loss would severely dent their chances, but they can still qualify if Bangladesh beats Afghanistan. If Australia wins, their superior NRR of 0.223 gives them an edge, but they will still need to wait for the result of the Afghanistan-Bangladesh match to confirm their qualification.
Afghanistan: Likely to qualify
Afghanistan has been impressive and now stands on the brink of a historic semifinal berth. If Australia loses to India, Afghanistan only needs to win against Bangladesh. However, if Australia wins, Afghanistan must secure a victory with a significant margin to boost their NRR and surpass Australia. By the time they play, they will know the exact NRR requirements.
Bangladesh: Mathematical chance
Bangladesh's qualification scenario is the most challenging. They need to beat Afghanistan and hope India defeats Australia. Even then, their poor NRR of -2.489 makes it unlikely for them to advance unless they achieve an extraordinarily large victory.
Super Eights’ Group 2
Group 2 standings (as of June 23, 13:00 GMT)
- South Africa: NRR of 0.625
- West Indies: NRR ahead of England
- England: NRR of 0.412
- USA: NRR of -2.908
Remaining fixtures
- England vs USA (June 23, 14:30 GMT)
- West Indies vs South Africa (June 24, 00:30 GMT)
South Africa: Favourites to qualify
South Africa can secure their semifinal spot by beating West Indies. If they lose, they will still likely qualify if England does not achieve a large victory over the USA, due to their current superior NRR of 0.625.
West Indies: Likely to qualify
West Indies must focus on their match against South Africa while keeping an eye on the England-USA game. If England wins, West Indies need a significant win against South Africa to boost their NRR. If England loses, West Indies just need to avoid a heavy defeat to qualify.
England: Qualified
England has qualified for the semifinals after a decisive win against USA.
USA: Mathematical chance
After the defeat by England USA's hopes are slim but not entirely gone.
Net Run Rate (NRR) considerations
Net run rate is a crucial factor in determining the semifinalists in case teams are tied on points. NRR is calculated by subtracting the average runs per over conceded from the average runs per over scored. Therefore, every run and wicket in the upcoming matches can significantly impact the teams' NRR and their chances of qualifying.
Key matches to watch
- India vs Australia (June 24): A decisive match for both teams, with Australia needing a win more desperately.
- West Indies vs South Africa (June 24): The result will determine the fate of both teams and could also impact England's chances.
