Astronomers worldwide are monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032.
While the probability is low, the asteroid’s size and trajectory were enough to trigger an international warning system for planetary defence.
Key facts
- Size: Estimated between 40 and 90 meters wide—large enough to cause localized damage.
- Speed: If it were to impact, it would hit at 38,000 miles per hour.
- Current distance: As of January 31, 2025, it is 30 million miles from Earth.
- Discovery: First spotted on January 27, 2025, after passing near Earth on Christmas.
- Next observation window: It will fade from view in April 2025 and become observable again in mid-2028.
What if it hits?
Experts stress that Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not an extinction-level threat, but an impact could still cause significant damage, particularly in populated areas. Potential impact zones include the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, astronomers believe it is far more likely to hit an ocean than a city, minimizing potential destruction.
What’s next?
NASA and ESA’s planetary defence teams are tracking the asteroid using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. Scientists believe that as they refine the asteroid’s trajectory, the impact probability will likely drop to zero.
NASA has already proven asteroid deflection is possible. The kinetic impactor technique, successfully tested in 2022, could be used to alter the asteroid’s path if necessary.
For now, experts urge the public to stay informed but not alarmed. With better detection technology, warnings about near-Earth asteroids will become more common.
