The US-Iran situation is highly tense at present. President Donald Trump has sent a ‘threatening’ letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, warning Iran to either sign a nuclear deal or prepare for war. In response, Iran has indirectly signaled its willingness for dialogue. The outcomes of this exchange remain uncertain, but if Iran refuses negotiations and moves toward war, the consequences will be severe. On the other hand, if it chooses diplomacy, Iran’s regional influence will shift. In both scenarios, Pakistan’s position requires serious discussion.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in an ideological battle for decades. Its nuclear capability will not only disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East but also create serious implications for South Asia. While it poses a direct threat to Saudi Arabia and Israel, it will also introduce geopolitical challenges for Pakistan and other neighboring countries.

If Iran goes nuclear, an arms race will begin in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Gulf states will start their own nuclear programs, pushing the region into perpetual conflict. Saudi Arabia, as a US ally, will undoubtedly seek nuclear capabilities to counterbalance Iran. The UAE, another US ally, may follow suit. Saudi Arabia will justify its nuclear ambitions by arguing that Yemen remains a battleground of Iranian influence, preventing any regional buffer zone from stabilizing.

On the other hand, Iran shares a border with Pakistan. Historically, Pakistan-Iran relations have fluctuated. Iran becoming a nuclear power will create new challenges for Pakistan, including border security concerns. If sectarian tensions or cross-border conflicts arise, Iran’s nuclear status will pose a strategic dilemma for the region.

India enjoys close economic and defense ties with Iran, and the Chabahar Port is an example of their joint projects. This alignment will benefit India, while Pakistan will face greater geopolitical challenges. In such a situation, an escalation in militarization and proxy wars across the region is likely.

Iran may use its nuclear capabilities to expand regional influence, destabilizing Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan. Given Pakistan’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, any Iranian nuclear ambitions will be perceived as a threat by Riyadh, which could pressure Pakistan for strategic and military support—placing Islamabad in a difficult position.

A major concern for Pakistan would be its strategic depth. Due to its narrow geographic dimensions, major cities like Lahore, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi may face challenges in case of any Indian adventurism. However, if Iran aligns with India, Pakistan could face a two-front war. If tensions also escalate with Afghanistan, Pakistan would be strategically sandwiched, dealing with threats from the east (India), the west (Iran), and the northwest (Afghanistan). Strengthening Pakistan’s defensive posture would become a necessity.

However, Iran becoming nuclear is unlikely. It remains a country with persistent tensions along all its borders—Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq. Unlike China, which Pakistan views as a stable ally, Iran has a history of engaging in proxy wars. If Iran gains nuclear capabilities, it will likely fuel instability in the region. Meanwhile, the US and the West are determined to prevent Iran from reaching critical nuclear mass. If Tehran does not comply, a military response could become a possibility.